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The Acquirer’s Multiple:
How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market
TOBIAS E. CARLISLE

Copyright © 2017 Tobias E. Carlisle
All rights reserved.
ISBN: 0692928855
ISBN-13: 978-0692928851

DEDICATION
For Nick, Stell, and Tom.
CONTENTS
Preface
Acknowledgments
About the Author
1 How the Billionaire Contrarians Zig
2 Young Buffett’s Hedge Fund
3 The Great Berkshire Hathaway Raid
4 Buffett’s Wonderful Companies at Fair Prices
5 How to Beat the Little Book That Beats the Market
6 The Acquirer’s Multiple
7 The Secret to Beating the Market
8 The Mechanics of Deep Value
9 The Pirate King
10 New Gentlemen of Fortune
11 The Art of Deep-Value Investing
12 The Nine Rules of Deep Value
Appendix: Simulation Details
Notes
PREFACE
“It is better to be lucky. But I would rather be exact.
Then when luck comes, you are ready.”
—Ernest Hemingway, The Old Man and The Sea
(1952)
This book is a short, simple explanation of one of the most powerful ideas in investing: zig.
Zig?
Zig when the crowd zags. Zig with the value investors. Zig with the contrarians.
Here’s why: the only way to get a good price is to buy what the crowd wants to sell and sell what the crowd wants to buy. It means a low price. And it might mean the stock is undervalued. That’s a good thing. It means the downside is smaller than the upside. If we’re wrong, we won’t lose much. If we’re right, we could make a lot.
When we find undervalued stocks, we often find they are cheap for a reason: the business looks bad. Why buy an undervalued stock with a seemingly bad business? Because the markets are ruled by a powerful force known as mean reversion
: the idea that things go back toward normal.
Mean reversion pushes up undervalued stocks. And it pulls down expensive stocks. It pulls down fast-growing, profitable businesses, and it pushes up shrinking loss-makers. It works on stock markets, industries, and whole economies. It is the business cycle: the boom after the bust and the bust after the boom.
The best investors know this. They expect the turn in a stock’s fortunes. While the crowd imagines the trend continues forever, deep-value investors and contrarians zig
before it turns.
Mean reversion has two important consequences for investors:
1.Undervalued, out-of-favor stocks tend to beat the market. Glamourous, expensive stocks don’t.
2.Fast-growing businesses tend to slow down. Highly profitable businesses tend to become less profitable. The rev ............

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