StalkingtheBlackSwan_ResearchandDecision.epub - (EPUB全文下载)

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Table of Contents
 
Title Page
Acknowledgements
Introduction
 
Part I - Uncertainty
Chapter 1 - Forecasting in Extreme Environments
Fannie Mae: The Gathering Storm
Sources of Extreme Volatility: Nonlinear Fundamentals
Sources of Extreme Volatility: Collective Behavior
Sources of Extreme Volatility: Interaction Between Markets and Fundamentals
Forecasting in Extreme Environments
The Fall of Fannie Mae
Chapter 2 - Thinking in Probabilities
Providian’s First Black Swan
A Probability Tree for Providian
More Applications of Probability Trees
Conclusion to the Providian Story
Chapter 3 - The Balance Between Overconfidence and Underconfidence, and the ...
Underconfident but Accurate: The Trials of CIT
Confidence in the Markets
Emotional Confidence: An Imperfect Signal
Confidence and Competition
Blinded by the Light: The Risk of Complex Modeling
Model-Related Overconfidence and an Ill-Fated Call on Countrywide
Overconfident Modeling and the Subprime Mortgage Collapse
 
Part II - Information
Chapter 4 - Fighting Information Overload with Strategy
Winning and Losing Billions in the U.S. Subprime Crisis
Information Overload in the Markets
The Nature and Limits of Computation
Information Strategy
Obstacles to Information Strategy
Information and Strategy: Advance America
Chapter 5 - Making Decisions in Real Time How to React to New Information ...
How Not to React in Real Time: The Spin-Off of CIT
The Computational Roots of Cognitive Dissonance
Sources of Cognitive Dissonance
Reviewing the Second-Quarter 2001 Surprise at Providian
The Misjudgment with CIT
Chapter 6 - Mitigating Information Asymmetry
Information Asymmetry Between Managers and Investors
Trying to Level the Playing Field
Recognizing Cognitive Dissonance in Companies
 
Part III - Analysis and Judgment
Chapter 7 - Mapping from Simple Ideas to Complex Analysis
The IPO of MasterCard
The Trade-Off Between Accuracy and Complexity
MasterCard: The Plot Thickens
MasterCard and American Express
Mapping Causal Relationships
American Express and MasterCard: The Outcome
Chapter 8 - The Power and Pitfalls of Monte Carlo Modeling
Introduction to Monte Carlo Models
Figuring Legal Risk at American Express
Consequences of Misestimating Correlation
Missing the Forest for the Trees
Fannie Mae and the Mystery of the Missing Financial Statements
Chapter 9 - Judgment
Introduction to Sallie Mae
The Practice of Judgment
Value Investing Reduced to Algorithms
MBNA’s Risk Management Stumble
Basel II: The Failure of Algorithmic Capi ............

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