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2010 Random House Trade Paperback Edition
Copyright © 2007, 2010 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
All rights reserved.
Published in the United States by Random House Trade Paperbacks, an imprint of The Random House Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., New York.
RANDOM
HOUSE
TRADE
PAPERBACKS
and colophon are trademarks of Random House, Inc.
Originally published in hardcover and in slightly different form in the United States by Random House, an imprint of The Random House Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., in 2007.
LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA
Taleb, Nassim.
The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable /
Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
p. cm.
Contents: Part one—Umberto Eco’s antilibrary, or how we seek
validation—Part two—We just can’t predict—Part three—
Those gray swans of extremistan—Part four—The end.
eISBN: 978-0-679-60418-1
1. Uncertainty (Information theory)—Social aspects.
2. Forecasting. I. Title.
Q375.T35 2007
003′.54—dc22 2006051093
www.atrandom.com
v3.0_r7
CONTENTS
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Note to the Second Edition
Prologue
On the Plumage of Birds
What You Do Not Know
Experts and “Empty Suits”
Learning to Learn
A New Kind of Ingratitude
Life Is Very Unusual
Plato and the Nerd
Too Dull to Write About
The Bottom Line
Chapters Map
PART ONE:
UMBERTO ECO’S ANTILIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION
Chapter 1:
The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic
Anatomy of a Black Swan
On Walking Walks
“Paradise” Evaporated
The Starred Night
History and the Triplet of Opacity
Nobody Knows What’s Going On
History Does Not Crawl, It Jumps
Dear Diary: On History Running Backward
Education in a Taxicab
Clusters
Where Is the Show?
8¾ Lbs Later
The Four-Letter Word of Independence
Limousine Philosopher
Chapter 2:
Yevgenia’s Black Swan
Chapter 3:
The Speculator and the Prostitute
The Best (Worst) Advice
Beware the Scalable
The Advent of Scalability
Scalability and Globalization
Travels Inside Mediocristan
The Strange Country of Extremistan
Extremistan and Knowledge
Wild and Mild
The Tyranny of the Accident
Chapter 4:
One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker
How to Learn from the Turkey
Trained to Be Dull
A Black Swan Is Relative to Knowledge
A Brief History of the Black Swan Problem
Sextus the (Alas) Empirical
Algazel
The Skeptic, Friend of Religion
I Don’t Want to Be a Turkey
They Want to Live in Mediocristan
Chapter 5:
Confirmation Shmonfirmation!
Zoogles Are Not All Boogles
Evidence
Negative ............

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