TheFourthTurning - (EPUB全文下载)

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Previous Books by William Strauss and Neil Howe
13TH GEN! ABORT, RETRY, IGNORE, FAIL?
GENERATIONS: THE HISTORY OF AMERICA'S FUTURE
Also by Neil Howe (coauthored with Peter G. Peterson)
ON BORROWED TIME: HOW THE GROWTH IN
ENTITLEMENT SPENDING THREATENS AMERICA'S FUTURE (1988)
Also by William Strauss (coauthored with Lawrence Baskir)
CHANCE AND CIRCUMSTANCE: THE DRAFT, THE WAR,AND THE VIETNAM GENERATION (1978)
To Janie and Simona, who share our timeAnd to Eric, Giorgia, Melanie, Nathaniel, Rebecca, and Victoria,who, God willing, will share a time beyond
That which hath been is now;and that which is to be hath already been;and God requireth that which is past.
—Ecclesiastes 3.15
Contents
1. Winter Comes Again
Part One. Seasons
2. Seasons of Time
3. Seasons of Life
4. Cycles of History
Overview: Seven Cycles of Generations and Turnings
5. Gray Champions
Part Two. Turnings
6. The First Turning: American High (1946-1964)
7. The Second Turning: Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984)
8. The Third Turning: Culture Wars (1984-2005?)
9. Fourth Turnings in History
10. A Fourth Turning Prophecy
Part Three. Preparations
11. Preparing for the Fourth Turning
12. The Eternal Return
Acknowledgments
Notes
CHAPTER 1Winter Comes Again
AMERICA FEELS LIKE IT'S UNRAVELING.
Though we live in an era of relative peace and comfort, we have settled into a mood of pessimism about the long-term future, fearful that our superpower nation is somehow rotting from within.
Neither an epic victory over Communism nor an extended upswing of the business cycle can buoy our public spirit. The Cold War and New Deal struggles are plainly over, but we are of no mind to bask in their successes. The America of today feels worse, in its fundamentals, than the one many of us remember from youth, a society presided over by those of supposedly lesser consciousness. Wherever we look, from L.A. to D.C., from Oklahoma City to Sun City, we see paths to a foreboding future. We yearn for civic character but satisfy ourselves with symbolic gestures and celebrity circuses. We perceive no greatness in our leaders, a new meanness in ourselves. Small wonder that each new election brings a new jolt, its aftermath a new disappointment.
Not long ago, America was more than the sum of its parts. Now, it is less. Around World War II, we were proud as a people but modest as individuals. Fewer than two people in ten said yes when asked, Are you a very important person? Today, more than six in ten say yes. Where we once though ............

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