FooledbyRandomness - (EPUB全文下载)

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Fooled by Randomness
is a work of nonfiction, but certain names of nonpublic figures have been changed, and some of the private individuals described are fictionalized or composite portraits.
Copyright © 2004 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
All rights reserved.
Published in the United States by Random House, an imprint of The Random House Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., New York.
RANDOM
HOUSE
and colophon are registered trademarks of Random House, Inc.
Originally published in the United States in hardcover by TEXERE, part of Thomson Corporation, in 2004,and in trade paperback by Random House Trade Paperbacks, an imprint of The Random House Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., in 2005.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Taleb, Nassim.
Fooled by randomness: the hidden role of chance in life and in the markets / Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
p. cm.
Originally published: New York: Thomson/Texere, 2004.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Investments. 2. Chance. 3. Random variables. I. Title.
HG4521.T285 2005
123’.3—dc22 2005049005
www.atrandom.com
eISBN: 978-1-58836-767-9
v3.0_r8
CONTENTS
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Preface
Chapter Summaries
Prologue
PART I: SOLON’S WARNING
Skewness, Asymmetry, Induction
Chapter 1:
IF YOU’RE SO RICH, WHY AREN’T YOU SO SMART?
NERO TULIP
Hit by Lightning
Temporary Sanity
Modus Operandi
No Work Ethics
There Are Always Secrets
JOHN THE HIGH-YIELD TRADER
An Overpaid Hick
THE RED-HOT SUMMER
Serotonin and Randomness
YOUR DENTIST IS RICH, VERY RICH
Chapter 2:
A BIZARRE ACCOUNTING METHOD
ALTERNATIVE HISTORY
Russian Roulette
Possible Worlds
An Even More Vicious Roulette
SMOOTH PEER RELATIONS
Salvation via Aeroflot
Solon Visits Regine’s Nightclub
GEORGE WILL IS NO SOLON: ON COUNTERINTUITIVE TRUTHS
Humiliated in Debates
A Different Kind of Earthquake
Proverbs Galore
Risk Managers
Epiphenomena
Chapter 3:
A MATHEMATICAL MEDITATION ON HISTORY
Europlayboy Mathematics
The Tools
Monte Carlo Mathematics
FUN IN MY ATTIC
Making History
Zorglubs Crowding the Attic
Denigration of History
The Stove Is Hot
Skills in Predicting Past History
My Solon
DISTILLED THINKING ON YOUR PALMPILOT
Breaking News
Shiller Redux
Gerontocracy
PHILOSTRATUS IN MONTE CARLO : ON THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOISE AND INFORMATION
Chapter 4:
RANDOMNESS, NONSENSE, AND THE SCIENTIFIC INTELLECTUAL
RANDOMNESS AND THE VERB
Reverse Turing Test
The Father of All Pseudothinkers
MONTE CARLO POETRY
Chapter 5:
SURVIVAL OF ............

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