TheBlackSwan - (EPUB全文下载)

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PRAISE FOR THE BLACK SWAN
“Taleb not only has an explanation for [the crisis], he saw it coming.”
—DAVID BROOKS, The New York Times
“The hottest thinker in the world.”
—BRYAN APPLEYARD, The Sunday Times (London)
“Taleb is the real thing. [He] rightly understands that what’s brought the global banking system to its knees isn’t simply greed or wickedness but … intellectual hubris.
—JOHN GRAY, author of Straw Dogs (as quoted in GQ)
“The new sage … The trader turned author has emerged as the guru of the global financial meltdown. Not only is he riding high in the bestseller lists, his theory of black swan events has become the most seductive guide to our uncertain times.”
—The Observer
“[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne.”
—The Wall Street Journal
“[This] is the lesson of Nassim Taleb … and also the lesson of our volatile times. There is more courage and heroism in defying the human impulse, in taking the purposeful and painful steps to prepare for the unimaginable.”
—MALCOLM GLADWELL, author of The Tipping Point
“[Taleb is] a genuinely significant philosopher … someone who is able to change the way we view the structure of the world through the strength, originality and veracity of his ideas alone.”
—GQ
“Long-standing critics of risk-modelling, such as … Taleb … are now hailed as seers.”
—The Economist
“A provocative macro-trend tome in the tradition of … The Tipping Point.”
—Time
“An eye-opening book, one that teases our intelligence … He is after big game, and he bags it.”
—ROGER LOWENSTEIN, Portfolio
“Erudite advice … The Black Swan is a richly enjoyable read with an important message.”
—Business Week
“Engrossing … a lively, sassy study of what’s not known.”
—FRANK WILSON, The Philadelphia Inquirer
“[An] engaging new book … The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”
—The New York Times Book Review
“A rigorous meditation on the modern world.”
—The Daily Telegraph (London)
“Funny, quirky and thought-provoking … [Taleb is] engaging, lively and intelligent.”
—The Sunday Times (London)
ALSO BY NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB
Fooled by Randomness
To Benoît Mandelbrot,a Greek among Romans
CONTENTS
Prologue
On the Plumage of Birds
What You Do Not Know
Experts and “Empty Suits”
Learning to Learn
A New Kind of Ingratitude
Life Is Very Unusual
Plato and the Nerd
Too Dull to Write About
The Bottom Line
Chapters Map
PART ONE: UMBERTO ECO’S ANTILIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION
Chapter 1: The Apprenti ............

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